Datamonitor Diabetes Therapies Forecast

Datamonitor Diabetes Therapies Forecast

Datamonitor forecasts that the cardiovascular and metabolic market across the seven major markets** will peak in 2011 and then begin to decline, with total sales falling from $105bn in 2009 to $101bn in 2019. In contrast, the volume of sales will continue to increase, driven by aging populations and higher rates of obesity.

Christine Henry, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor, comments: 'The proportion of the market composed of branded therapies is forecast to fall and by 2019, generics and biosimilars will contribute 68% of volume sales across the seven major markets, and 28% of sales."

Dyslipidemia and hypertension sales are set to become nearly entirely genericized. Lipitor (atorvastatin, Pfizer) is currently the world-leading pharmaceutical brand, and is set to lose US exclusivity from 2011, further opening up the dyslipidemia market to generics. In thrombosis, a range of new therapies will balance out generic erosion of leading antithrombotics Plavix (clopidogrel, Sanofi-Aventis/Bristol-Myers Squibb) and Lovenox (enoxaparin sodium, Sanofi-Aventis), and in diabetes, a strong pipeline will ensure continued growth.

The cardiovascular and metabolic pipeline will contribute 17% of sales by 2019, driven by a strong pipeline in diabetes therapies, where significant clinical unmet needs remain. The antidiabetic pipeline is forecast to generate close to $10.3bn in 2019.

Christine continues: 'Antidiabetics will provide the key growth market in cardiovascular and metabolic disease, and by 2019, seven of the top 10 brands will be antidiabetics. At this point, diabetes will contribute 35% of all sales in the seven major markets, and antidiabetics will generate 50% of cardiovascular and metabolic sales in the key US market, where the other therapy areas are highly eroded by genericization.

'Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are forecast to be the only two growth companies of the top 10 cardiovascular and metabolic companies from 2009: Novo Nordisk due to its highly defensible position in insulin therapies and peptides; and Eli Lilly through its own insulin franchise, and a strong development pipeline in the diabetes market. Merck & Co. is forecast to be the leading cardiovascular and metabolic company by 2019, driven by a diverse product portfolio, and the strength of its blockbuster antidiabetic Januvia franchise," concludes Christine.

*From the report Commercial Insight: Cardiovascular and Metabolic Market Overview
** US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK